Climate change is fueling extremism, raising tempers along with temperatures, and creating conflict between political factions and their nations’ political leaders.
In the coming decades, climate change is expected to worsen conflict in many areas. It is also likely to cause increased economic and humanitarian crises and displacement and an increase in conflict over access to energy supplies and water.
To illustrate just how much the impact of climate change will shift the world, a panel of experts reviewed eight different regional or global conflicts and analyzed the potential political impact of rising average global temperatures. The experts agreed that there will be more conflict in the coming years as average global temperatures rise, but found that it will not necessarily be the same kind of conflict that is currently being experienced by many. Some conflicts will be more severe, while others not as severe as they are today.
Panelists agreed on the key points and areas of conflict.
The conflict between Turkey and Syria, which continues to increase in intensity and spread to other conflicts in the region, will be one of the first to suffer from climate change. It will be the last to recover.
The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will likely not see any significant change in its intensity as it is currently experiencing. But it is possible that it could become so intense in the future that it will no longer be relevant.
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel will likely not see a significant change in its intensity, but it will be one of the first to be affected, if only by a shift in the geographic region being affected.
Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to experience a decline in their intensity as oil, water and electricity shortages, and the resulting economic crisis, combine with social and ethnic tensions to create a large area of unrest.
North Korea and South Korea will continue to experience a decline in their intensity as economic challenges, including a large population, combine with a lack of resources for development and an inability to find a political solution to the conflict.
The conflict between Pakistan and India will face more challenges in the future as its geographic spread over the South China Sea and the Middle East creates tension as its military and economic influence increases.
The conflict between the United States and Mexico will likely continue to grow in intensity and reach new areas as the U.S. economic and energy supply crisis becomes more severe.
The conflict with the U